Sudan's conflict with the GERD

 

Like Egypt, Sudan rely on the Nile for agriculture purposes, and have generally been in agreement with Egypt about the threat that the GERD represents. However, for Sudan the Dam presents an opportunity to improve access to hydroelectric power and reduce the impact of flooding, which could get worse with precipitation events becoming more erratic (Siddig et. al, 2021). Sudan is in a tricky political position where they don’t want to ruin their relationship with Egypt or Ethiopia, but at the same time want the obtain the hydroelectric power from the GERD, as well as continue to receive their quota of water from the Nile (Otinov, 2022). This situation where they stand to both gain and lose something from the Dam puts them in a position where if they pick a side, political relations could be permanently frayed.

 

Another point to note is that a news report from January 2023 said that Sudan’s leader was in agreement with Ethiopian views about the Dam, but this comes after a military coup in Sudan in 2021 meaning that their leadership has changed since the project started, which could explain the change in opinion about the Dam (africanews, 2023). Sudanese political instability, which led to the coup also alters the relations with Egypt and Ethiopia as they now have to contend with new Sudanese authorities to negotiate with. Combining this with information from previous blogs it is clear to see that the water politics in the region are very unstable with all three countries holding different views about the project, making successful negotiations a difficult task. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Image
Why the Dam is Being Built The GERD. Source: webuild Construction began in 2011 and in 2020 they began filling the dam, with the fourth filling occurring in September 2023. With this, Ethiopia has said that they have finished filling the reservoir ( BBC News, 2023 ). The main aim of this dam is electricity production, with this being the biggest hydroelectric power plant in Africa, it also cannot be used for irrigation because the region doesn’t have the capacity for development in irrigated agriculture ( Salman, 2016 ). The dam could double the production of electricity in Ethiopia, which would have a significant impact on the economy as currently roughly only half of the population have access to electricity. This increase in electricity output will hopefully increase both social development and economic, as more businesses and households gain reliable access to electricity. So, whilst this dam will make significant positive change for Ethiopia, it has inevitably created tensions wit...
Read more

Future Prospects for Cooperation in The Nile Basin

Looking to the future, these three countries have to find a way to share the Nile’s resources equitably, or risk worse political relations, and conflict with the other riparian countries. The historical allocation of water on the Nile is from a colonial era, not representative of water and development needs of the 11 riparian countries in a modern world of growing water insecurity and greater unpredictability of precipitation events due to climate change.   A potential way for cooperation on the Nile basin could be the idea of benefit-sharing. This was proposed by Rawia Tawfik and tries to ‘broaden the scope of benefits’ to promote cooperation over the focus on water allocation that dominates the discourse on the basin ( Tawfik, 2016 ). This could be sharing the financial costs of the GERD between the downstream states and Ethiopia, which would mean joint ownerships so that the use of the Dam could be managed with all country’s stakes accounted for ( Tawfik, 2016 ). However, th...
Read more

The Potential Impacts of the GERD During Drought

Image
  Now that I’ve discussed the opinions of all three countries, I will look at the potential outcome for Egypt and Sudan given a drought with the GERD. It is important to note that the simulation of this occurring is dependent on many key factors that are difficult to predict, such as rainfall and flow of the water in the basin after the reservoir is full. The article I’m using takes ‘the 1972-1987 series of low flows’ and uses the outcomes to model the effect of a similar drought with this Dam as well. Egypt is home to the High Aswan Dam (HAD) which was opened in 1970 and was built for both irrigation and hydroelectric power purposes. According to the article the storage of the HAD reservoir will be higher during the drought compared to if the GERD wasn’t built, which would actually result in higher water availability. Figure 4 shows during the drought the Egypt shortage tends to be lower with the GERD, as well as in drought recovery. However, during the peak of the drought the ...
Read more